From: L' Ermit (lhermit@hotmail.com)
Date: Thu Jan 10 2002 - 02:13:43 MST
[Blunderov] In some of the links that the Hermit posted there is mention
made of "Dark Comet-like Ojects". These are nasty and very hard to
track.There might be quite a lot of them. These objects could, with almost
no warning, hit the Earth at speeds of up to 55 Kilometers per second. This
would not be favourable for the continuation of (human)life on Earth. We
need to know where these things are.
====
[Hermit] It would not be difficult, neither need it cost much than we are
spending already to attain this knowledge. The combination of a decay
powered steerable phased array doppler radar (which might be based on the
Aegis design and could be constructed as a folding mesh bearing a large
number of redundant "intelligent antennae" modules attached to a
self-erecting tensegrity structure for deployment after being placed in a
circumpolar orbit - giving a good view of non-ecliptic threats), a small
(1-2m) gyroscopic-reaction steered telescope (to investigate detected
objects) and a ground based database of detected objects and trajectory
calculation system - which would then feed acquired information into the
existing catalog systems to prevent "redetection," would probably suffice to
catalog all conceivable threats over a one year period (a complete solar
orbit).
[Hermit] This, by itself, would not be sufficient to protect us, but would
dramatically expand the warning period at a much lower cost than the
proposed (and only partially implemented and even more partially funded)
SpaceGuard system. My estimate is that the entire project cost (including
deployment) would be under $ 350 million.
[Hermit] Partial protection might best be achieved using a space borne
missile cluster, dispensing multiple open-frame, two-stage, solid booster,
robotic "chase missiles," designed to be fired beyond an NEO and then
accelerated to close on it laterally. The probe would be designed to attach
to the object, use nuclear power to abrade or vaporize material from the
object and then to eject it over a long period of time at very high velocity
(yielding very high DV over time) to displace the trajectory sufficiently to
prevent an Earth impact. Such a system will not be effective as an offensive
weapons system against Earth targets (the open-frame would ensure break-up
during reentry) and validation of this by any nation so desiring would be
relatively easy (via telescope). Assuming that we had reasonably
cost-effective access to space (not the case yet), the current cost of such
a system should be under $1.5 billion - a small price to pay for the level
of insurance it would offer - against what experts have characterized as a
real and present danger far greater than that which we deem acceptable to
modern society.
[Hermit] I surmise that the threat is at least in part formed of material
projected from the Kirkwood gaps by Jupiter (NB untested hypothesis), and
analysis of the density and frequency of the remaining portions of the
asteroid belt indicates that, if my surmise is correct, we are potentially
threatened by far more large objects than most models currently assume (note
concatenated assumptions, indicating low probability, but very high risk,
suggesting that the conclusion be taken seriously until disproven). So
complete protection will only come when we are able to live off-planet and
potentially to "reseed Earth" in the event of a major (probably impact
induced climatic) disaster. Again, I point to the "Virian Vision" posts as
containing some suitable methods for attaining this position in a near-term
time-frame (12 to 30 years).
[Hermit] A good question would be why NASA is not engaged in such projects,
but as anyone moderately familiar with the organization is aware, NASA is a
very politically sensitive, risk-averse, committee-driven, entity, which
could not be less visionary even had it been designed that way*.
Regards
Hermit
*Given the funding and oversight structures, it cannot be anything else. The
USA has the lack-of-space capability that she deserves, given the percentage
of her population who think that space research is a "waste of money" and
that astrology is more relevant to their lives. A pity that all of us are
threatened by the complacency of these warm-but-brain-dead bodies.
PS ESA is much more adventurous, but not as well funded.
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