From: Richard Ridge (richard_ridge@tao-group.com)
Date: Wed Feb 06 2002 - 07:24:30 MST
> [Hermit 1] Perhaps you meant "3 options"? I'd suggest that there are more.
No, two. Of the three presented the final course is, frankly, not worthy of
consideration. I should probably have said 'worthwhile options.' As for your
further recommendations, I'd suggest that your proposal is in essence a
(logical) extension of option number one.
> [Hermit 1] Requiring some other nation or nations to put their
> soldiers at
> risk and undoubtedly causing the deaths of more civilians.
Indeed, although it can hardly be guaranteed that the prospect of a
resurgent Iraqi military might not have precisely the same consequences for
other states within the region or for much of the Iraqi populace. Also, I
have to agree with Joe - what you have prepared is in essence a worst case
scenario, which could easily come to pass, but that would not necessarily be
the case. I'm not sure why an arrangement of the kind used in Afghanistan
could not be used in this case (we will obviously have to wait to see how
well the new Afghan government copes, but the basic principles seem far from
unreasonable).
> This almost
> certainly means working with Saddam Hussein and in the long term, almost
> certainly having to provide him and his near associates with
> guarantees of
> immunity. Personally, I would advocate that this route be explored. Of
> course, having demonized Saddam Hussein for over a decade,
And vice versa... I'm not sure he's likely to want to start working with the
evil imperialists he's been denouncing for so long. That cuts both ways. It
was after all, the Iraqi regime who refused to co-operate with UN weapons
inspections, which hardly seems to denote any great willingness to be
co-operative in that regard. The other problem is what to do with the
territories currently covered by the no-fly zones. I don't think Hussein is
likely to want to cede autonomy to those regions, regardless of what
concessions may be proffered. Conversely, in the current climate the main
advantage of the Iraqi regime is that it is a good old fashioned military
dictatorship focussed on realpolitik (not entirely unlike the regime in
Pakistan); i.e. the same qualities that caused the US to view Iraq as being
far more preferable to the feverishly devout Iran prior to the Gulf war
should arguably do so again.
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