From: Hermit (hidden@lucifer.com)
Date: Fri May 31 2002 - 04:38:04 MDT
[Andy Brice] Given the relatively slow progress of AI and robotics over the last 30 odd years I would like to know what makes you think that we can produce a synthetic being superior to ourselves in the next 30 years?
[Hermit] I may be wrong. I don't think so. If intelligence is a function of complexity then Moore's law and the very rapid developments we are seeing makes it inevitable. If it is a function of structure, our rapid development of understanding about the brain will do the same. I think it is a combination of the above and of chaotic systems (another field we are beginning to get a very good handle on), and that the exponential curve of developments will result in self-evolving machines in the near future. Having examined the very interesting results of rapid evolution in "genetically programmed analog devices" (including those generated using digital circuits!), and seen our current inability to reverse engineer (let alone generate) devices which clearly "do the job" more efficiently (with fewer components) than circuits developed by human designers, I am fairly sure that once such evolution is initiated, that a full-blown spirothete will be the result. I am also sure that we won't understand how or why it wo
rks, and that it may have difficulty explaining it too. [Refer e.g. [“ Topic: virus: Darwinism and unintentional electronics.”, Hermit, 1999-06-02 12:30:34] ( http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=39;action=display;threadid=17513;start=0)
[Andy Brice] An alternative scenario is that we gradually augment our existing human hardware and software. Currently we have spectacles, hearing aids, replacements hips, mobile phones, personal organizers etc. There is little doubt that this process of increasing our capabilities will continue apace and may include ways to augment our intelligence. But this process could take hundreds of years to produce a human an order of magnitude more advanced than our current capabilities (if ever).
[Hermit] I completely agree, and despite everything and anything I may say about AI, advocate that we go ahead with this process. I do see genetics as one key to this development, and suspect that the current actions attempting to prevent such development as potentially very damaging to us all. This work will certainly not be wasted if AI does not happen, and has no opportunity cost and it does.
[Andy Brice] In this scenario we aren't replaced by our own creation, but become our own creation. This may raise issues about augmented and un-augmented humans living side by side, but hardly the Demon seed/Terminator/(put your sci fi favourite here) scenario of humanity being destroyed by its robotic creation.
[Hermit] I agree with the concept of "becoming our own creation" - I see it as potentially a very important aspect of our growth.
[Hermit] If the latter portion was intended as a reply to my writing, I do think you mistake my tone about us being "destroyed." I don't see it as "destruction," rather as "evolutionary displacement" and assign no significance (other than slight sentimental value perhaps - we could have done so much more and been so much "better") to this idea whatsoever. Ultimately, the idea of "good" as being "good for humans" is only an assessment made by ourselves. What is is. Good is an idea (an important idea), not a Universal constant.
Kind Regards
Hermit
[Andy Brice] Ps/ I've been away traveling around the world for 9 weeks and then very busy at work getting a release out, so I haven't tuned to virus in since before Xmas. There are some photographs from my trip at http://www.deepyellow.net/rtw.htm if anyone is interested.
[Hermit] Thank you for sharing your photographs. A nice trip indeed.
---- This message was posted by Hermit to the Virus 2002 board on Church of Virus BBS. <http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=51;action=display;threadid=25540>
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