From: Walter Watts (wlwatts@cox.net)
Date: Wed Jul 24 2002 - 17:42:13 MDT
Expert: Asteroid May Hit Earth, but Don't Panic
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Jul 24, 11:00 am ET
By Kate Kelland LONDON (Reuters) - A massive asteroid could hit Earth in
just 17 years' time, destroying life as we know it, a British space
expert said Wednesday.
The asteroid -- the most threatening object ever detected in space -- is
two km (1.2 miles) wide and apparently on a direct collision course with
Earth.
"Objects of this size only hit the Earth every one or two million
years," said Dr. Benny Peiser, an asteroid expert at Liverpool John
Moore's University in northern England.
"In the worst case scenario, a disaster of this size would be global in
its extent, would create a meltdown of our economic and social life, and
would reduce us to dark age conditions," he told Reuters.
But Peiser and other space experts say they are pretty confident this
nightmare scenario will not come about.
"This thing is the highest threat that has been cataloged, but the scale
in terms of the threat keeps changing," said Peter Bond, spokesman for
the Royal Astronomical Society.
"If it did hit the Earth it would cause a continental-size
explosion...but it is a fairly remote possibility."
The asteroid -- named 2002 NT7 -- was first detected earlier this month
by the United States Linear sky survey program.
Since then, Peiser said scientists at the U.S. National Aeronautics and
Space Administration's (NASA) near-Earth objects team and at Pisa
University in Italy have carried out orbit calculations to work out the
probability and potential date of impact to define the risk it poses.
Their calculations show it could hit the earth on February 1, 2019.
"The impact probability is below one in a million, but because the first
impact date is so early -- only 17 years from now
-- and the object is very large, it's been rated on the impact risk
Palermo Scale as a positive," Peiser said. "It is the first object which
has ever hit a positive rating."
Scientists warn, however, that the risk rating has not been reviewed by
the International Astronomical Union, which is the main international
body responsible for announcing such risks.
Peiser said 2002 NT7 would continue to be monitored by space experts
across the world, and that over time, these observations would probably
erase the threat posed by it.
"In all likelihood, in a couple of months additional observations will
eliminate this object from the list of potential impacts," he said. "I
am very confident that additional observations over time will...show
that it is actually not on a collision course with Earth."
But he warned that the world should take this as wake-up call and set
about preparing for the reality of an asteroid hit in the future.
"Sooner or later -- and no one can really tell us which it will be -- we
will find an object that is on a collision course. That is as certain as
"Amen" in church. And eventually we will have to deflect an object from
its collision course," he said.
At the moment, he added, scientists fear it could take at least 30 years
for the world to be able to devise and set up a mission to deal with
such a threat -- a timescale which would be woefully inadequate if the
2019 strike were to happen.
-- Walter Watts Tulsa Network Solutions, Inc. "No one gets to see the Wizard! Not nobody! Not no how!"
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