From: Blunderov (squooker@mweb.co.za)
Date: Wed Jul 31 2002 - 10:14:28 MDT
Hermit [hidden@lucifer.com] Wed 2002/07/31 01:13 PM wrote:
<snip>
Fortunately the PRC does not (yet) have the craft that would be required
for an invasion of the ROC.
<snap>
[Blunderov]
Hmm. Found this devil's advocate
http://taiwansecurity.org/TT/2001/TT-092801.htm (Visited today)
<rip>
Taipei Times, Sep. 28, 2001
Richard Russell's article in the autumn issue of the US Army War
College's respected Parameters, entitled "What if China Attacks Taiwan,"
has received a lot of attention recently. While economists and political
pundits discount an invasion, those in military circles have to consider
the unthinkable.
Playing the devil's advocate, Russell argues that the impossible is
possible.
The most common invasion scenario is an amphibious assault following a
missile attack, but Russell suggests that an amphibious assault alone is
not that plausible.
Forget about Normandy beach-style invasions. Russell suggests that China
might attempt a surprise attack that combines a massive missile barrage
with an airborne assault.
According to Russell's theory, China's Second Artillery Corps would
unleash up to 400 short, medium and long-range missiles on Taiwan in
multiple-wave and multi-directional saturation attacks. China's Dong
Feng-11 (M-11) and DF-15 (M-9) short-range ballistic missiles would most
likely begin the assault on Taiwan's air bases, port facilities and
strategic installations.
At the same time China's 15th Airborne Army, with three airborne
divisions, would begin their assault. Though Russell does not name any
of Taiwan's potential airbases or ports as targets, others have
suggested that an airborne assault at one pinpoint on the map would open
the door.
And everyone seems to agree that door is Taichung.
China has already begun planning for an airborne assault on Taichung.
Jane's Defence Weekly has reported that China has built a replica of
Taichung's Ching Chuan Kang airbase at a site near Dingxin airport in
the northwest province of Gansu. Parachuting commandos into Taichung
would cut Taiwan in half, provide China with port and airfield
facilities for bringing in more troops and equipment, and cut off
north-south roads and highways from the coast to the central mountain
region.
Taiwan is hardly ignorant of this fact, but for some mysterious reason
Taichung's port has been chosen as the designated "direct links" port
facility.
Imagine container ships loaded with hundreds of Chinese Special Forces
erupting from cargo holds. A potential Trojan Horse in the making. After
the Ching Chuan Kang airbase was secure, China could fly in 14 divisions
of "rapid reaction" troops, with air support from China's 1,000 bombers
and fighters.
With Taiwan's airbases destroyed, there should be little resistance
except for Taiwan's surface-to-air missiles. While analysts point out
China lacks military airlift capabilities for a massive invasion, they
ignore basic airlift platforms such as commercial aircrafts and cargo
air carriers with heavy lift capabilities.
Taiwan has no early warning radar to detect missile launches, no overt
surface-to-surface missile capability, no air refueling capability for
its fighter planes and no way to bloody China's nose if it did attack.
The worst thing that would happen to China if it tried and failed to
invade is that it would lose some troops and equipment (and of course
some "face"). There would be no fear of Taiwan retaliating on Shanghai
or Fujian Province.
This scenario is so fast it would be extremely difficult for the US to
intervene.
No one believed Japan would attack Pearl Harbor, or that North Korea
would invade South Korea, or that China would enter the Korean War, or
that the North Vietnamese would violate the Tet ceasefire.
History is littered with surprise attacks and Taiwan is not immune from
becoming another footnote in history.
Wendell Minnick is the Taiwan correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly.
</rip>
It's a wicked world
Warm regards
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