From: joedees@bellsouth.net
Date: Sat Aug 24 2002 - 19:03:05 MDT
Iran in Crisis
by Daniel Pipes
New York Post
July 23, 2002
Militant Islam is on the ascendant almost everywhere around the
globe - except in the nation that has experienced it longest and
knows it best. In Iran, it is on the defensive and perhaps in retreat.
This situation has vast potential consequences. It derives from the
fact that (putting aside the exceptional case of Saudi Arabia),
militant Islam first attained power in Iran in 1979, when Ayatollah
Khomeini overthrew the shah. Twenty-three years later,
Khomeini's aggressive, totalitarian project has left Iranians deeply
disillusioned and longing for a return to normal life.
The population wants freedom from a regime that bullies them
personally, tyrannizes them politically, depresses them
economically and isolates them culturally. As in Afghanistan
under the Taliban, suffering the ravages of militant Islam means
(Rob Sobhani of Georgetown University notes) that Iranians now
"know evil when they see it up close."
On an almost daily basis, Iranians manifest their wish to be free
by skirmishing in newspapers, student dormitories, football
stadiums and elsewhere. Most remarkably, disillusion has reached
the ruling elite itself, as manifested earlier this month in a
scathing letter of resignation published by Ayatollah Jalaleddin
Taheri.
This nearly 90-year-old stalwart of the establishment had a part in
overthrowing the shah, helped establish the regime's intolerance
and occupied the position of Friday prayer leader (roughly
equivalent to a bishop) in the historic city of Isfahan.
But now he's had enough.
He resigned because, as he poetically put it, he saw "the flowers
of virtue being crushed and values and spirituality on the decline"
by those who "sharpen the teeth of the crocodile of power." More
specifically, he found the Islamic Republic spawned
"crookedness, negligence, weakness, poverty and indigence."
Taheri's resignation was timed to coincide with large anti-regime
demonstrations which lead to the arrest of more than 140
protesters. He then won the endorsement of nearly half of the
deputies in Iran's parliament.
These and other indications of support prompted a highly unusual
statement from President Bush advising that Iran's "government
should listen" to its people. This declaration in turn nearly
panicked the government, which then compelled Taheri to issue
another statement, somewhat softening his critique.
All this has several implications.
* Iran's future: As a rule of thumb, when the apple of a regime's
eye turns against it, the government is vulnerable. Taheri's
rejection of the Islamic Republic is roughly analogous to the
situation in Poland two decades ago, when the workers of that
supposed "worker's paradise" rejected the Communist state that
claimed to benefit them.
The Islamic Republic is not near collapse, for the rulers are ready
to kill as many Iranians as it takes to keep power. Still, that much
of the population - and even some of the leadership - despises the
current authority means that regime change is just a matter of
time.
* Democracy: By virtue of getting more or less what they wanted
in 1979 (i.e., no shah), the Iranian population realized that it had
control over and responsibility over its destiny.
This development, unknown among Arabic-speaking populations,
has led to something quite profound and wondrous: a maturation
of the Iranian body politic. It has looked at its choices and
thumpingly comes down in favor of democracy and a cautious
foreign policy.
The contrast between the maturity of Iranian politics and the
puerile quality of Arab politics could hardly be greater. Yes, both
are dominated by tyrannical regimes, but Iranians can see their
way out of the darkness. It is conceivable that before too long, the
apparently disastrous Iranian revolution of 1978-79 will be looked
back on as the inadvertent start of something wholesome and
necessary.
* Islam: Iranians have apparently begun a process of seriously
thinking about Islam of the sort that must precede that religion's
developing into a moderate and anti-militant influence.
Only Muslims who have suffered from the full debilitation
inflicted by militant Islam over a period of decades, it seems, are
immune to the charms of this totalitarianism and prepared to take
on the challenge of finding an alternative vision to it.
In all, Iran finds itself in the wholly unaccustomed role of
providing glimmers of good news to the outside world. The
militant Islamic nightmare is far from over, but in that country, at
least, the end is in sight.
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