From: Hermit (hidden@lucifer.com)
Date: Thu Jul 24 2003 - 22:14:49 MDT
athe nonrex, I think you are right on the mark.
Energy should already be close to "free", only our short sitedness has stopped this from happening. Eventually, somebody will get a clue, and it will be. At which point fresh water and most raw materials will be extracted from sea water and the cost will tend towards zero.
Nanotechnology will be a reality within 20 years. At which point the production of raw materials and processing and assembly of manufactured goods will tend towards zero.
The combination of almost free energy and almost free manufactured goods will result in the cost of transport and distribution dropping towards zero.
I used to think that the above would leave a value in ideas, concepts, plans and art. I no longer think this. Given the rate at which AI and computer technology is developing, and assuming no major discontinuities, within 20 years the typical desktop computer is likely to be more intelligent and creative than the most gifted human alive; and within 50, more intelligent and creative than the entire human race. So the value of creativity will also tend towards zero.
As intelligence and creativity surpassing human capability becomes commonplace, this will impact the factors above, greatly accelerating the tendency of all goods and services to be delivered free (as the cost of accounting will rapidy exceed the cost of of the goods).
Given these trends, the value of money will also tend towards zero. The incentive gone, "jobs" and economies are also likely to become obsolete. Given the massive acceleration in the slope of all these curves as the trends interact, the process of value-obsolescence is likely to occur with extreme rapidity.
I think that some of those reading this are likely to still be alive when this happens unless some asshole succeeds in blowing all of us to hell before then. A possibility which will increase dramatically as the Luddites panic when these trends become obvious.
The question is what should we be doing about it.
Kind Regards
Hermit
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