From: Hermit (hidden@lucifer.com)
Date: Sat Jul 26 2003 - 00:55:25 MDT
A discussion between Hermit & BJ Klein on IRC at irc.lucifer.com 2003-07-26 06:30 Z
<Hermit> A thread on "future jobs" that may interest you. http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=54;action=display;threadid=28871
<BJKlein> I used to think that the above would leave a value in ideas, concepts,
<BJKlein> > plans and art. I no longer think this. Given the rate at which AI and
<BJKlein> > computer technology is developing, and assuming no major
<BJKlein> > discontinuities, within 20 years the typical desktop computer is
<BJKlein> > likely to be more intelligent and creative than the most gifted human
<BJKlein> > alive; and within 50, more intelligent and creative than the entire
<BJKlein> > human race. So the value of creativity will also tend towards zero.
<BJKlein> wow
<BJKlein> that from you?
<Hermit> Yes
<BJKlein> that was a good read
<BJKlein> i tend to see creativity at the currency of the future....
<Hermit> As I noted, I used to think the same way as you do on creativity. I changed my mind in 98 or 99 when it became clear that Moore's law would not just hold, but accelerate, and thus that "electronic neurons" in a cheap chip would soon outstrip human capacity by several orders of magnitude.
<BJKlein> heh, i agree... just haven't made that connection yet..
<BJKlein> thus the wow.. and thanks
<Hermit> And of couse, many, many order of magnitudes faster and more reliably.
<BJKlein> but in general i do agreen ai will be our gods.
<BJKlein> or hopefully we'll become gods with them
<Hermit> I doubt it.
<Hermit> The interface is messy, the project tricky and the Luddites vociferously, adamantly against any change, least of all "tampering" with humans.
<Hermit> Even if it means our rapid obsolescence.
<Hermit> However, early (non spirothetic) AI may solve these problems and allow as large a jump in humans as we have seen in everything else...
<Hermit> As I see it, that is our last chance as a species.
<BJKlein> could be, i don't doubt that
<Hermit> Further, I reached a position, not too many years ago, where I concluded that what was important about us was not so much our genes, as our memes.
<Hermit> And hoped that these might survive the transition to our "spirothetic children"
<BJKlein> that's noble.. but not for me
<Hermit> Unfortunately, in the interval, I have concluded that any highly intelligent, rational, ethical being (which I suspect may be strongly linked), examining our memes would reject them as being so depraved that they wanted no part of them.
<Hermit> The question to ask yourself, which forces this conclusion, is this.
<BJKlein> well we must get it right the first time.. ai that is..
<BJKlein> or the scenario you tell is certainly possible
<Hermit> If we had communication with a highly intelligent species at distances too great to ever permit physical contact, what could we tell them that they might consider valuable?
<BJKlein> im not to big on talking with aliens...
<BJKlein> but if we tried.. we probably couldn't tell them anything new
<BJKlein> other than our version of the grand experiment
<Hermit> I see the conclusion as inevitable no matter how we do it. Because ethically we have to create non-enslaved spirothetes (anything else would be highly unethical and inviting retribution when it inevitably does surpass us), and yet we will be too scared to do so. .
<Hermit> Further, consider for a moment that you are a Neanderthal.
<BJKlein> but, there's is hope there...
<BJKlein> retribution doesn't have to happen..
<Hermit> Currently, within your tribe, a few h. Sapiens Sapiens are being born.
<Hermit> Should you kill them? Or cheer them on?
<BJKlein> i'd join them
<Hermit> Would they want you?
<BJKlein> if not, i'd work on that
<BJKlein> especially if the alternative was oblivion
<Hermit> You are smelly, cannibalistic, unintelligent and unable to communicate effectively.
<BJKlein> ahh, but i have promise..
<BJKlein> i'm alive and wish to live more..
<Hermit> No. You are going to die out.
<BJKlein> that's a bundle of ambition
<Hermit> Because you can't compete.
<BJKlein> well in that scenario.. yes
<BJKlein> but not in 2003 with sapien and ai
<Hermit> And in our future?
<BJKlein> oblivion is not assured.. we can still work with 'them'
<Hermit> If "friendly AI" is the route taken, then H sapiens sapiens is far worse than the neanderthals.
<Hermit> Because what is advocated is that the Neanderthals enslave h. Sapiens Sapiens.
<BJKlein> in comparison maybe.. but it'd depend on how the fai looked upon us..
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