From: Jonathan Davis (jonathan.davis@lineone.net)
Date: Mon Sep 15 2003 - 05:52:02 MDT
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-virus@lucifer.com [mailto:owner-virus@lucifer.com] On Behalf Of
Kharin
Sent: 15 September 2003 10:24
To: virus@lucifer.com
Subject: Re:virus: The Ideohazard 1.1
[Jonathan 1] "I was spooked by Hermit's Chinese-commit-genocide piece but
for me it was ruined by its overt anti-Americanism (if that term can be
applied to what appears *in my opinion* to be Hermit's pathological hatred
of America)."
[Kharin 1] As I've said before I am not particularly enthused by the term
'anti-americanism.' Most nations are not in the habit of expecting to be
unconditionally loved and one would not expect to hear terms like
anti-british (especially at the height of its Empire when such concerns were
blithely irrelevant) or anti-european. In fact, the only parallel that
springs to mind is being 'un-amercian.'
[Jonathan 2] Whilst most nations would not expect to be unconditionally
loved, neither would they expect to be reflexively hated. Anti-Americanism
is simply an abstraction of being anti-American . It means what it says.
[Kharin 1] That said, the piece is an attempt to extrapolate trends from
current events. Given that the axis of evil speech threatened both Iran and
North Korea while ensuring that the US would be bogged down with Iraq for
several years, some of those consequences are already evident; since both
countries have responded by accelerating weapons programmes. It would be
rather surprising if China did not view such events, note that it is the
only state likely to be in a position to challenge the US in the future and
prepare accordingly. Even though this is a creative work, I would be very
surprised if no-one in the Pentagon was performing similar scenario planning
regarding China. If they are not, I would be very worried indeed.
[Jonathan 2] The piece is future history and therefore unfettered by
reality. The truth is that it is near certain that the Pentagon has prepared
scenarios to deal with an aggressive China. Why? Because it is already a
reality. Sabre rattling over Taiwan, brinkmanship over the Spratleys,
rampant techno-theft, massive internal repression, clearly stated objectives
for world domination and hegemony (the Chinese want to be where the USA is
today. If they ever get there those breathless from screaming at the
putative US outrages better prepares for a whole new scale of reference when
it comes to Chinese brutality and violation of international norms. Simply
think about China's complicity in intellectual property violations as one
example. For more information see: "The China Threat" by Bill Gertz and
Howard Bloom's essay on China in "Everything You Know Is Wrong".)
[Jonathan 1] "Incidentally: If history is to be a guide, then be assured
China will amount to zero in terms of global power. It will invert itself as
it has done so many times in its 6,000 year history. China has some
advantages over the West, advantages easily wiped out by us: It is ruthless
and devious, it is not a democracy, it is protectionist, it prostitutes
promise of its markets to steal technology and advantage, its workers are
prepared to work for very little. "
[Kharin 1] An interesting question. China's economic performance has
certainly been far more remarkable than you suggest. To quote the CIA World
Factbook:
"The result has been a quadrupling of GDP since 1978. In 2002, with its 1.3
billion people but a GDP of just $4,400 per capita, China stood as the
second-largest economy in the world after the US (measured on a purchasing
power parity basis)."
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html
[Jonathan 2] I am fully aware of China's economic miracle. The problem (for
China) is that the forces which sustain it are waning. Inward investment,
techno-theft and protectionism are all losing their lustre. If China is ever
seen a threat, the party is over.
[Kharin 1] Within that context, the structure of the Chinese economy has
changed rapidly since between 1991 and 1997 the size of the Chinese private
sector grew by 71%. The growth rates of some Chinese areas, the Yangtse
delta in particular, have been phenomenal. Of course, as you suggest there
are factors that may retard this; for example, most of this growth is
accounted for in terms of inward investment, while India may yet prove more
attractive.
[Jonathan 2] Indeed.
Kind regards
Jonathan
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